Polls show Democrats favored to take control of House, midterm wave may be limited

A series of national polls in late October 2026 show Democrats with a clear lead on the generic congressional ballot heading into Election Day, suggesting they are on track to capture the U.S. House. An NPR/PBS News/Marist survey conducted Oct. 19–20 found Democratic candidates leading 52% to 44% among likely voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Oct. 26 similarly gave Democrats 53% and Republicans 44% among likely voters. That 8–9 point advantage far exceeds most midterm leads in recent years, bolstered by public dissatisfaction with President Trump.

The polls also report that Trump’s approval rating remains well below 50%. The Ipsos analysis shows just 32% of Americans approving of Trump’s handling of the economy. The NPR/Marist survey found 40% approval among likely voters. In both polls Trump’s overall job approval was similarly weak (around one-third), reflecting widespread concern over high prices and inflation. About 8 in 10 voters told AP-NORC researchers the economy or cost of living is a top issue in this year’s election. The Reuters/Ipsos report notes that only one-quarter of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the U.S. economy and just 20% approve of his handling of the cost of living.

Economic anxiety is evident in respondents’ self-reported finances. A Marist question found 38% of registered voters saying their personal finances have worsened in the past year, versus 15% saying they have improved. In that poll, 34% of likely voters named cost of living as their single biggest issue in the midterms. Preserving democracy (33%) was a close second, and immigration trailed at 12%. NPR’s Domenico Montanaro points out that preserving democracy “resonates” most with Democrats and independents, while immigration is the top issue among fervent Trump backers.

All these factors have Democrats currently favored in the House. The NPR/PBS/Marist poll concluded that Democrats are “favored to gain control of the U.S. House” based on their advantages. Analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report also project a Democratic gain. By Oct. 23, Cook had shifted 19 races into Democrats’ column, giving Democrats outright leads in 218 seats – exactly the number needed for a majority. Republican control is on track to end; as AP reports, about half of voters now want Democrats to control Congress, versus roughly 40% favoring Republicans.

Democrats’ House gains may rival or exceed those of recent “wave” years. A Washington Post analysis notes that Cook’s revised ratings imply Democrats could flip “between 12 and 22 seats”. That could yield a majority as large as in the 2006 or 2018 midterms. However, several factors suggest this might not be a historic landslide. Many congressional districts remain gerrymandered in Republicans’ favor, and analysts had expected only modest gains given Republicans’ slim majority and favorable maps. Voter enthusiasm, while strong, is not lopsided: about 91% of Democrats say they are enthusiastic to vote, versus 86% of Republicans. And some swing districts still rate as true toss-ups.

Even as House control seems likely to change hands, Senate control remains in doubt. Democrats hold only 48 seats currently, with five of 35 seats up in competitive races. NPR notes that control of the Senate “is a true toss-up,” with key contests in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia still too close to call. (Democrats would need to flip at least four Republican-held seats.) Just one week from Nov. 3, pollsters caution that too-close results could leave many races undecided on election night.