Miami's "No-Hurricane" Flooding: Record King Tides Swamp Streets, and It's Trickier Than a Storm

Miami has not been hit by a hurricane this year, yet it is dealing with flooding more often than a hurricane would bring.

According to data from the Virginia Key tide gauge, Miami has recorded 15 days of "moderate" flooding level tide events so far in 2026. The previous annual record was 9 days, and this year's number has nearly doubled, with more high tide events expected around Thanksgiving. Last week's king tide broke the highest water level ever recorded at the station, surpassing levels observed during past hurricanes, all without any storm system approaching.

Tiffany Troxler, director of Florida International University's Sea Level Solutions Center, said after surveying the area: "It's very unusual. Places I've never seen flood before are flooding this time."

An analysis of more than two decades of records at the Virginia Key gauge reveals a clear shift. Historically, most flooding was tied to tropical cyclones, but today, king tides, not storms, are becoming the main driver of serious flooding in South Florida. Of the 14 highest water levels recorded at the station, 10 were caused by king tides, and 8 of those occurred in the past two years.

More than one factor is at play. South Florida's sea level has risen about 5 inches since 2005. Meanwhile, the moon is in the closer phase of its 18 year orbital cycle, naturally amplifying tide heights. Strong onshore winds push more seawater toward the coast, and stacked on a rising baseline, ordinary high tides become flood events.

For property owners and managers, the practical impact is immediate. Jack Lepselter, owner of Real Property Management United, which manages rentals across Fort Lauderdale and Miami, said the pattern has changed how his team plans for the year.

"Flooding used to be something we worried about when a storm was on the radar," Lepselter said. "Now we are watching tide charts the same way we watch the forecast. King tides are pushing water into low lying streets and parking areas in neighborhoods we never used to flag, and that affects tenants, maintenance schedules, and how we advise owners on protecting their buildings. Being proactive is the only way to keep it manageable."

Real Property Management United handles leasing, maintenance coordination, and compliance for single family homes, condos, and small multi unit properties across Broward County and Miami, and the company notes that its maintenance and inspection processes are built to catch water intrusion issues early. More information is available at https://www.unitedrpm.com/.

The National Weather Service has issued a coastal flood statement for coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties, in effect through Sunday evening, with scattered minor flooding expected on low lying roads and coastal properties. Forecasters warn drivers not to attempt to cross flooded roads. There is about a 20 percent chance of showers Sunday night, but otherwise conditions are sunny and warm, with Saturday highs expected around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius, or the mid 80s Fahrenheit.

NASA projections show that if sea level rises along a middle path, Miami could see 24 flood days per year by 2035 and 75 days by 2045. Former hurricane hunter and meteorologist Jeff Masters put it bluntly: "In terms of sea level rise driven by human caused climate change, we're basically locked in for the next 25 years. We're pretty certain about what we're going to face."

For Miami residents, this means a new normal is taking shape. The worst flooding no longer comes from a named storm, but from a clear, windless morning when the moon happens to be especially close.